42 CFR 425.660 – Accountable Care Prospective Trend (ACPT)
(a) General. For agreement periods beginning on January 1, 2024, and in subsequent years, CMS incorporates a fixed projected growth rate determined at the beginning of the ACO’s agreement period called the Accountable Care Prospective Trend (ACPT) into the blended update factor described in § 425.652(b) when updating an ACO’s benchmark for each performance year of the agreement period.
(b) Determination of ACPT. An ACPT is a flat dollar amount calculated using one or more annualized growth rates based on national fee-for-service Medicare expenditures projected by the CMS Office of the Actuary. In determining the ACPT for an enrollment type for each performance year, CMS does all of the following:
(1) Projects per capita growth in Parts A and B fee-for-service expenditures for benchmark year 3 (BY3) and each performance year of the ACO’s agreement period. The calculation—
(i) Excludes IME and DSH payments, and the supplemental payment for IHS/Tribal hospitals and Puerto Rico hospitals; and
(ii) Makes separate expenditure calculations for each of the following populations of beneficiaries:
(A) ESRD.
(B) Aged/Disabled.
(2) Calculates one or more annualized growth rates for the population of beneficiaries described in paragraph (b)(1)(ii)(A) of this section (the ESRD ACPT) and one or more annualized growth rates for the population of beneficiaries described in paragraph (b)(1)(ii)(B) of this section (the Aged/Disabled ACPT). These annualized growth rates will remain fixed over the ACO’s agreement period. The annualized growth rate is an annual rate of growth in projected expenditures during the ACO’s 5-year agreement period relative to BY3, calculated as follows—
(i) Using a uniform annualized projected rate of growth over each of the 5 performance years of the 5-year agreement period; or
(ii) If annualization as specified in paragraph (b)(2)(i) of this section is determined not to reasonably fit the anticipated growth curve, CMS will apply an alternative annualization technique using two or more annualized growth rates reflecting the projected rates of growth during the 5 performance years comprising the 5-year agreement period.
(3) For each performance year, multiplies the applicable annualized growth rate described in paragraph (b)(2) of this section by BY3 truncated national per capita fee-for-service Medicare expenditures for assignable beneficiaries for each Medicare enrollment type (ESRD, disabled, aged/dual eligible Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries, and aged/non-dual eligible Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries) identified for the 12-month calendar year corresponding to BY3 to express the annualized growth rate as a flat dollar amount as follows:
(i) The ESRD ACPT is used for the ESRD population.
(ii) The Aged/Disabled ACPT is used for the following populations: disabled, aged/dual eligible Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries, and aged/non-dual eligible Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries.
(4) Adjusts the flat dollar amounts described in paragraph (b)(3) of this section for each performance year for differences in severity and case mix between the ACO’s BY3 assigned beneficiary population and the national assignable FFS population for each Medicare enrollment type identified for the 12-month calendar year corresponding to BY3.
(5) Divides the risk adjusted flat dollar amounts described in paragraph (b)(4) of this section by the ACO’s historical benchmark expenditures described in § 425.652(a) for each Medicare enrollment type to calculate the percent increase to be included in the blended update factor described in § 425.652(b)(4).